Fearless Oscar predictions 2022
Analysis, predictions and picks for the 2022 Academy Awards -- plus we'll tell you which nominees didn't deserve a nod, and who should replace them.
Last year was something of a weird one for the movies, and it’s been reflected in an up-and-down awards season with no one film dominating.
“The Power of the Dog” edged out to an early lead based on critic group awards, with “Belfast” seen as the stalking horse. Both have classic best picture pedigrees: historical pieces with marvelous performances and polish, with previous Oscar wins or nominations by cast and crew.
But the feel-good drama “CODA,” about a teen girl struggling as the only hearing person in a deaf family, has come on strong late.
Come what may, one prediction seems certain: streaming films are poised to have their breakout moment — and could even come away with more total Oscars than traditional theatrical releases.
My take is we’re going to see a very mixed distribution of awards this Sunday, with no one film picking up more than a handful. Personally, I prefer it this way. The best-acted film isn’t necessarily the best directed one, or the best photographed or the one with the best costumes, set designs, etc.
Give the statuette to the most deserving nominee in each category, I say, and let the chips fall where they may.
I didn’t much agree with the mainstream awards choices this year — the winners, or even the nominees. Only one film that made my top 10 list received a Best Picture nomination. Since I don’t have a lot of skin in this game, that means I can perhaps be a little more mercenary and daring in my choices.
Here then are my predictions and picks in all 23 Oscar categories. In addition, where I think applicable I’ll tell you which nominees I think didn’t deserve a nod — and who should replace them. This is known as the dreaded “Chris Cross”… since I’m Chris, and I’m doing the crossing-out of names.
Tune in Sunday, and best of luck to all the nominees!
Best Picture
The Nominees:
“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“Drive My Car”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
The Chatter:
I am officially predicting a “CODA” upset.
Plenty of things still favor “The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion’s haunting, challenging and imperfect take on the Western genre and toxic masculinity. It swept most of the early going, and with the box office disappointment of “West Side Story,” “Dune” and “Nightmare Alley,” all the big-budget studio releases seem out of it.
But “CODA” is the year’s feel-good hit. So it becomes a case of judging the Academy’s mood: do they want to reward a reassuring film, or a troubling one? I’m guessing that after years of political and pandemic turmoil, people are ready to feel happy again. Plus surprise wins with the Screen Actors Guild and Producers Guild give it the late-race momentum.
Normally I’d go with something from my top 10 list as my personal pick. But given “West Side Story” is the only one on it that made this list, and I’m disinclined to award what I still consider an unnecessary remake — even a marvelously done one — I’ll go with “Dog.” The only other film in the running is Kenneth Branagh’s personal, poignant “Belfast.”
Prediction: “CODA”
Pick:
“The Power of the Dog”
Chris Cross:
“Don’t Look Up” and “Licorice Pizza” didn’t light my fire, “Nightmare Alley” and “Dune” were wildly uneven, and you have to suffer through the first two hours of “Drive My Car” to get to the terrific last hour. I’ll nix all of them for “The Card Counter,” “Pig,” “Spider-Man: No Way Home,” “The Worst Person in the World” and “Mass.”
Best Actress
The Nominees:
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
Penélope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”
Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”
Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
The Chatter:
Unfortunately, all four of this year’s acting races seem completely locked up, which makes things rather boring. For Chastain, there’s a strong sense that it’s “her time,” even though she only really appeared on everyone’s radar about a decade ago.
She didn’t even start making movies until she was in her 30s; usually the women start early as ingenues and fight against early burnout and discrimination. At 45 — today’s her birthday! — Chastain seems like she’s just getting rolling on one of the all-time great film careers. She was terrific in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” turning a living caricature into a flesh-and-blood person, though the overall movie was rather weak.
I was really happy to see Cruz get in here, some of her best work in the rare Pedro Almodovar movie that didn’t make a big splash in the States. I would like to see her win, but she has no chance.
Stewart would be my next choice, and is the heavy fan favorite. But I actually think Colman has better odds for an upset against Chastain than her.
Prediction:
Jessica Chastain
Pick:
Penélope Cruz
Chris Cross:
Very strong women’s roles this year. Kidman’s nomination seems like a classic salute to a previous winner and Hollywood royalty. Nicole Kidman goes out, Tessa Thompson from “Passing” goes in. I’d have liked to see Rachel Zegler from “West Side Story” get in here, but I can’t knock any of these other fabulous performances out.
Best Actor
The Nominees:
Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!”
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
The Chatter:
It’s Smith’s year, with the added benefit that after three previous nominations, he actually deserves it most of those here. “King Richard” is quite obviously a whip-me-up-an-Oscar sort of production, but he carries it marvelously.
Sad to see no love for Oscar Isaac in “The Card Counter.” For me, he gave the performance of the year. Unfortunately, nobody saw the movie.
Prediction:
Will Smith
Pick:
Will Smith
Chris Cross:
A few good moments for Javier Bardem, but I’ll take Oscar Isaac instead. Ditto for Andrew Garfield; Nic Cage in “Pig” is a tastier pick.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees:
Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Judi Dench, “Belfast”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
The Chatter:
DeBose has it locked up, but I didn’t really think she did much with the part that Rita Moreno didn’t do 60 years ago.
Glad to see Dunst get a nod; the last 15 or so years have been rough on her career and the talk has gotten kind of vicious. Her first feature film credit was 32 years ago, and I for one would like to see the next 32.
Dench is the only one with a puncher’s chance for an upset. Her nomination might seem like a sentimental choice, but she’s so damn good in “Belfast,” often at her best working without dialogue.
For me it’s Buckley, a wonderful chameleon of a character actress I’ve been keeping my eye on for awhile now.
Prediction:
Ariana DeBose
Pick:
Jessie Buckley
Chris Cross:
Aunjanue Ellis did fine work, but she really stays in the background too much to be nominated. A lot of people wanted Caitriona Balfe from “Belfast,” and she’s great. Or Ruth Negga in “Passing.” But I’ll take Regina King in “The Harder They Fall.”
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees:
Ciaran Hinds, “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”
J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
The Chatter:
Nice to see Troy Kotsur go from unheralded deaf character actor — not exactly a going concern — into the front-runner for the Oscar. And he deserves it. A couple of really well written and performed scenes turned his from the comic relief role into something really profound.
I really like Plemons and Simmons, but theirs were rather underwritten parts with basically one thing to do.
Prediction:
Troy Kotsur
Pick:
Troy Kotsur
Chris Cross:
Jesse Plemons and J.K. Simmons go; Ben Affleck from the underrated “The Tender Bar” and Reed Birney from “Mass” come.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
Adam McKay and David Sirota, “Don’t Look Up”
Zach Baylin, “King Richard”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, “The Worst Person in the World”
The Chatter:
Honestly, a bit of a weak category here. The writing in “Don’t Look Up” and “Licorice Pizza” in particular seem like the most flawed things about those movies. As I’ve said repeatedly about “Pizza,” the boy lead character is an insufferable drip — the story should’ve focused on the woman.
Even “Belfast,” which is very heartfelt and sentimental, could’ve used some punching up of the script. For example, the way it misplaces the nascent romance between the boy and his classmate for much of the movie. But Oscar voters love to use the screenplay categories to reward movies they like that won’t vie for best picture or director.
“The Worst Person in the World” pulls off a tonal hat trick, taking what seems like a catty romcom format and turning it into something weighty and tragic.
Prediction:
“Belfast”
Pick:
“The Worst Person in the World”
Chris Cross:
I’m looking down on “Don’t Look Up” and “Licorice Pizza,” ordering up Paul Schrader for “The Card Counter” and the brothers Mael, aka Sparks, for the delightfully kooky “Annette.”
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees:
Siân Heder, “CODA”
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe, “Drive My Car”
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve and Eric Roth, “Dune”
Maggie Gyllenhaal, “The Lost Daughter”
Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
The Chatter:
Other than “The Lost Daughter,” I think all of these are uneven or flawed screenplay adaptations. “Drive My Car” is too damn long, “Dune” doesn’t differentiate itself from the 1984 film enough, “The Power of the Dog” is overly coy with unveiling its main character’s dilemma, and “CODA” relies a little too much on mushy moments.
Tough call here. “CODA” won the Writers Guild Award, so I’m going with that. Campion is probably the main competition, but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if Gyllenhaal snuck in.
Prediction:
“CODA”
Pick:
“The Lost Daughter”
Chris Cross:
“Drive My Car” and “Dune” make way for “The Tender Bar” and “tick…tick…BOOM!”.
Best Director
The Nominees:
Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story”
The Chatter:
Jane Campion seems to have this in the bag unless her joke about the Williams sisters causes some late vote swings to go against her. She’s a terrific filmmaker with an original voice, and sadly has been away from feature films for a dozen years. And she would be just the second woman to win the best director prize, which seems insane.
Branagh is the likely stalking horse here, but I think he’s several lengths back.
Prediction:
Jane Campion
Pick:
Jane Campion
Chris Cross:
No way, Paul Thomas Anderson, yes way, Paul Schrader for “The Card Counter.”
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees:
“Ascension”
“Attica”
“Flee”
“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
“Writing With Fire”
The Chatter:
A really terrific year for documentary features. So of course, the best ones didn’t get nominated. The Academy uses some arcane rules for picking docs, and their voters tend to like stuff no one else did.
“Flee” and “Ascension” are decent but not great films. I can easily find better ones.
“Summer of Soul” has a real shot, but I think Academy voters are going to dismiss it as less consequential than “Attica.”
Prediction:
“Attica”
Pick:
“Summer of Soul”
Chris Cross:
“Flee” and “Ascension” make room for “The Lost Leonardo” and “Kurt Vonnegut: Unstuck in Time.”
Best Documentary Short
The Nominees:
“Audible”
“Lead Me Home”
“The Queen of Basketball”
“Three Songs for Benazir”
“When We Were Bullies”
The Chatter:
I think the terrible truth is not a lot of the voters actually watch all the shorts, especially in the documentary category where a “short film” can be 40+ minutes. So it becomes something of a buzz game.
Honestly, I thought all five nominees were good-not-great this year.
Prediction:
“The Queen of Basketball”
Pick:
“Lead Me Home”
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees:
“Encanto”
“Flee”
“Luca”
“The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
“Raya and the Last Dragon”
The Chatter:
It’s depressing. The Disney/Pixar always wins — OK, nearly always so. And this year, they’ve got three chances.
To me “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” was clearly the best animated film of the year, and it’s not even close. A lot of people are rooting for “Flee” owing to its blurring of the lines between animation, international feature and documentary. I’m fine with having a more “adult” film in this category — I just don’t think it’s nearly as good as people have said.
Prediction:
“Encanto”
Pick:
“The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
Chris Cross:
The weak “Encanto” makes way for the stronger “Ron’s Gone Wrong.”
Best Animated Short
The Nominees:
“Affairs of the Art”
“Bestia”
“Boxballet”
“Robin Robin”
“The Windshield Wiper”
The Chatter:
With no Disney/Pixar nominees, this one’s a shot in the dark.
Prediction:
“Robin Robin”
Pick:
“Affairs of the Art”
Best Live Action Short
The Nominees:
“The Dress”
“The Long Goodbye”
“On My Mind”
“Please Hold”
“Ala Kachuu — Take and Run”
The Chatter:
When one of the live action short features a name actor and previous Oscar nominee, they usually are the front-runner.
Prediction:
“The Long Goodbye”
Pick:
“Ala Kachuu — Take and Run”
Best International Feature
The Nominees:
“Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom,” Bhutan
“Flee,” Denmark
“The Hand of God,” Italy
“Drive My Car,” Japan
“The Worst Person in the World,” Norway
The Chatter:
“Drive My Car” has been the front-runner here for some time, winning most of the preliminary awards including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and most of the critics groups. So it’s unwise to choose against it.
I highly prefer “The Worst Person in the World,” and think it might have a chance to surprise everyone.
Prediction:
“Drive My Car”
Pick:
“The Worst Person in the World”
Chris Cross:
The weak “The Hand of God” doesn’t belong here. And I’m still astonished “Parallel Mothers” didn’t get a nod.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees:
Greig Fraser, “Dune”
Dan Laustsen, “Nightmare Alley”
Ari Wegner, “The Power of the Dog”
Bruno Delbonnel, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Janusz Kaminski, “West Side Story”
The Chatter:
Some fine, fine work behind the camera this year. Ari Wegner would be the very first woman to win the cinematography award in a craft that is still very white male-dominated. And “Dog” doesn’t work without those magnificent backdrops and unsettling angles.
Prediction:
“The Power of the Dog”
Pick:
“The Power of the Dog”
Chris Cross:
There are others worthy of a nod — “Pig” and “Belfast” come to mind — but I can’t knock any of these artists off the list.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees:
“Don’t Look Up”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“The Power of the Dog”
“Tick, Tick … Boom!”
The Chatter:
Always a tough category to predict, but action films with dynamic cutting tend to hold the day.
Prediction:
“Dune”
Pick:
“Dune”
Best Sound
The Nominees:
“Belfast”
“Dune”
“No Time to Die”
“The Power of the Dog”
“West Side Story”
Prediction:
“Dune”
Pick:
“Dune”
Best Production Design
The Nominees:
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
“West Side Story”
The Chatter:
“Dune” would seem to be the favorite, though I prefer the baroque feel of “Nightmare Alley.” My gut says “West Side Story” will win.
Prediction:
“West Side Story”
Pick:
“Nightmare Alley”
Best Original Score
The Nominees:
Nicholas Britel, “Don’t Look Up”
Hans Zimmer, “Dune”
Germaine Franco, “Encanto”
Alberto Iglesias, “Parallel Mothers
Jonny Greenwood, “The Power of the Dog”
The Chatter:
I personally prefer musical scores that stay in the background and accent the story rather than trying to bowl us over with foghorn cues and screechy chords.
Prediction:
“Dune”
Pick:
“The Power of the Dog”
Best Song
The Nominees:
“Be Alive” (“King Richard”)
“Dos Oruguitas” (“Encanto”)
“Down to Joy” (“Belfast”)
“No Time to Die” (“No Time to Die”)
“Somehow You Do” (“Four Good Days”)
The Chatter:
I didn’t like any of the songs in “Encanto,” and the one that’s a breakout hit isn’t even nominated.
Prediction:
“No Time to Die”
Pick:
“Down to Joy”
Best Makeup and Hair
The Nominees:
“Coming 2 America”
“Cruella”
“Dune”
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
“House of Gucci”
The Chatter:
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye” would seem to have this locked up for the transformation of Jessica Chastain, which leverages the uncanny valley effect. Personally I’ll take the wildly stylish “Cruella.”
Prediction:
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Pick:
“Cruella”
Best Costume Design
The Nominees:
“Cruella”
“Cyrano”
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“West Side Story”
The Chatter:
I predicted this one months ago when “Cruella” came out.
Prediction:
“Cruella”
Pick:
“Cruella”
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees:
“Dune”
“Free Guy”
“No Time to Die”
“Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings”
“Spider-Man: No Way Home”
The Chatter:
I think “Dune” is going to continue its run in the “technical” categories — God, how I hate that term. And now many of them aren’t even going to be presented live! The shame, the shame…
Prediction:
“Dune”
Pick:
“Spider-Man: No Way Home”