Fearless Oscar predictions 2023
Expect Sunday to be an all-everything night: "Everything Everywhere All at Once" is poised for Academy Awards dominance despite being one of the most overrated front-runners in recent memory.
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the totally wrongheaded of times. That’s my summation of the movie year 2022 and the resulting nominations for the Academy Awards, which will be held this Sunday.
It was a good year for film — so long as you looked past nearly all of the high-profile studio features and bragged-upon indies. I found most of them disappointing. I did discover plenty of movies to fall in love with, but many of them did not find audiences or much traction during awards season.
I like to think I’m not the type of critic who turns their nose up at the most popular movies just to seem precious. It’s just this past year, where most people turned right I turned left.
Here then are my annual predictions and picks in all 23 Oscar categories. In addition, where applicable I’ll tell you which nominees I think didn’t deserve to be nominated — and, even spicier, who should replace them. This is known as the dreaded “Chris Cross”… since I’m doing the crossing out.
Let the fun begin!
Best Picture
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front"
"Avatar: The Way of Water"
"The Banshees of Inisherin"
"Elvis"
"Everything Everywhere All at Once"
"The Fabelmans"
"Tár"
"Top Gun: Maverick"
"Triangle of Sadness"
"Women Talking"
The Chatter:
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” — which will hereafter be referred to as EEAAO because I’m already tired of typing it (and as a passive-aggressive diss) is a decently good movie. Like a lot of movies I see lately, it’s way longer than it needs to be. I didn’t find it very emotionally resonant. I think other movies have already done the multiverse-hopping shtick, and done it better. I found the Ke Huy Quan role, as written and performed, pitiful and bothersome. But people have fallen in love, and EEAAO has swept virtually every preliminary award there is.
“The Fabelmans” is Steven Spielberg’s messiest movie. “Elvis” wanders all over. “Triangle of Sadness” is this year’s head-scratcher nominee. Does anyone actually… like it? "Tár" contains a great performance but fails to stick the landing.
I’ll take Tom Cruise’s boffo sequel as the best of the nominees.
Prediction: “EEAAO”
Pick: “Top Gun: Maverick”
Chris Cross:
Lots to not love on this list. In fact, I’ll axe half the field. I’ll replace EEAAO, “Elvis,” "Tár,” “Triangle of Sadness” and “The Fabelmans” with “Close,” “Till,” “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On,” “Breaking” and “The Whale.”
Best Actress
The Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, "Tár"
Ana de Armas, "Blonde"
Andrea Riseborough, "To Leslie"
Michelle Williams, "The Fabelmans"
Michelle Yeoh, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
The Chatter:
This seems to be tight race, with Blanchett as the early favorite but Yeoh making up ground fast. Yeoh won the Screen Actors Guild Award, and as actors make up the largest voting bloc their choice usually prevails. Plus Blanchett’s a two-time winner and Yeoh has never been nominated after a long and illustrious career here and overseas. I’ll pick Blanchett as the clear best in a weak field.
This year’s best actress race is more about who got snubbed rather than who got in. Riseborough’s left-field nomination for a movie hardly anyone has seen has ruffled a lot of #OscarsSoWhite feathers, and not without justification. Danielle Deadwyler’s lack of nomination for “Till” is the one that really hurts, though others thought Viola Davis should’ve gotten in for “The Woman King.” Blanchett’s campaigning for Riseborough while seeming to neglect Black actresses will probably cost her some votes.
I’m surprised Ana de Armas stayed in given the dearth of praise for “Blonde,” but she was solid.
Prediction: Michelle Yeoh
Pick: Cate Blanchett
Chris Cross:
I’ll knock out Michelle Williams because hers isn’t even a leading role. I didn’t find Yeoh to be a particularly empathetic or even interesting presence. Deadwyler and Aubrey Plaza for “Emily the Criminal” get the nod instead. If we’re going to be nominating performances in movies nobody saw, I’ll take Dale Dickey in “A Love Song” over Riseborough.
Best Actor
The Nominees:
Austin Butler, "Elvis"
Colin Farrell, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Brendan Fraser, "The Whale"
Paul Mescal, "Aftersun"
Bill Nighy, "Living"
The Chatter:
To me this is the easiest category to pick. Brendan Fraser gave the performance of the year; nothing in all of the acting categories was even close. It was also his big comeback after years in the wilderness, so there’s a wellspring of sympathy for a guy in an industry of cutthroats who’s regarded as genuinely nice — not to mention technically a Hoosier!
Butler didn’t look, sound or act like Elvis as far as I can tell. It’s a charismatic breakout performance but not much of an impersonation. Personally I consider Mescal’s a supporting performance; I found his character to be an enigma rather than empathetic.
There’s talk Fraser peaked too soon and been some backlash about using prosthetics for the role. Not a lot of 600-pound actors out there, and I find it farcical that Fraser’s gotten a lot of grief about his own weight gain but is now criticized for not being fat enough. There’s a reason it’s called acting, people!
Butler is being pumped as the stalking horse, but I don’t see it. Farrell has the best chance of sneaking in.
Prediction: Brendan Fraser
Pick: Brendan Fraser
Chris Cross:
Out go Butler and Mescal; in go Timothy Spall for “The Last Bus” and Jim Broadbent for “The Duke.” Guess I’m partial to older Englishmen — just Nighy’s not enough.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees:
Angela Bassett, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
Hong Chau, "The Whale"
Kerry Condon, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Jamie Lee Curtis, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
Stephanie Hsu, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
The Chatter:
It seems to be between the two EEAAO actresses, trading preliminary wins back and forth. Oscar voters love an ingenue, but Curtis has been around forever doing good movies and bad, never been nominated despite being an OG Hollywood nepotism baby. She took the SAG award so she’s probably going to edge it out, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Hsu prevails.
Personally I think you could replace just about the whole list; of those nominated I’ll take Hong Chau, even though I’d rather have Sadie Sink from “The Whale” in this category.
It seems crazy not to have anyone from “Women Talking” in this category, but with a truly ensemble film it’s hard to pick out a favorite.
Prediction: Jamie Lee Curtis
Pick: Hong Chau
Chris Cross:
I’ll keep Chau, Bassett and Condon, substituting Curtis and Hsu with Sink and Thuso Mbedu from “The Woman King.”
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees:
Brendan Gleeson, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Brian Tyree Henry, "Causeway"
Judd Hirsch, "The Fabelmans"
Barry Keoghan, "The Banshees of Inisherin"
Ke Huy Quan, "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
The Chatter:
In general I’m not big on nominating a performer for having just one or two key scenes, but Judd Hirsch marked the high point of “The Fabelmans.” At the same time, Barry Keoghan had a moment of pure human beauty in “Banshees” but it seems a thin thread upon which to hang an Oscar. I like having both of them on this list but don’t think they should or will win.
I’ll take Brian Tyree Henry as my pick, even though his role bumps up against leading man status. It was just a very natural, lived-in performance that never put on airs or reached for something that’s not there. Of all the nominees, his turn felt the most real and centered.
Gleeson was also quite good in chasing down a very hard-to-understand character, though sitting here and pretending he and Farrell aren’t co-leads is just ridiculous. Category-hopping is nothing new but even by recent standards, this is pretty egregious.
I liked Ke Huy Quan in his child roles. He’s not the first kid actor to find it hard to transition to grown-up parts. I wish him well. But the truth is every time his character was onscreen in EEAAO, I wanted to smack him. Just a cringeworthy, subservient nonentity with no identity other than that reflected on him by his spouse. Even Short Round gave the sass to Dr. Jones.
Prediction: Ke Huy Quan
Pick: Brian Tyree Henry
Chris Cross:
Ke Huy Quan is replaced by Bokeem Woodbine in “The Inspection.”
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees:
"The Banshees of Inisherin," Martin McDonagh
"Everything Everywhere All at Once," Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
"The Fabelmans," Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg
"Tár," Todd Field
"Triangle of Sadness," Ruben Östlund
The Chatter:
I’m not terribly enamored with any of the nominees in this field, though I’ll take McDonagh for his ability to balance a very weird tone that straddles comedy, drama and tragedy unlike anything I’ve seen. The script for EEAAO is a confusing throw-everything-against-the-wall effort that often strained comprehensibility. “Fabelmans” is wildly uneven and has parts that don’t fit together. “Triangle” is almost three different movies.
Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, EEAAO
Pick: Martin McDonagh, “Banshees”
Chris Cross:
Bye-bye EEAAO, “Triangle of Sadness” and “The Fabelmans;” hello “Close,” “Till” and “Apollo 10½: A Space Age Childhood.”
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front," Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell
"Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery," Rian Johnson
"Living," Kazuo Ishiguro
"Top Gun: Maverick," Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie, story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks
"Women Talking," Sarah Polley
The Chatter:
In contrast to the original screenplays, this is actually a pretty strong list. I’d give it to Sarah Polley for an intricately assembled piece that lends all of the characters roughly equal weight and creates an emotionally invested space for the audience to delve into.
And I think she’s actually got a good shot at winning, both because it’s the strongest nominee and there will be pressure not to have such a male-dominated night in the screenplay and directing categories. I’d say her main competition is “Glass Onion,” but most people agree it’s a rather inferior sequel.
Prediction: “Women Talking," Sarah Polley
Pick: "Women Talking," Sarah Polley
Chris Cross:
I’ll nix “Glass Onion” in favor of “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.”
Best Director
The Nominees:
"The Banshees of Inisherin" Martin McDonagh
"Everything Everywhere All at Once" Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
"The Fabelmans" Steven Spielberg
"Tár" Todd Field
"Triangle of Sadness" Ruben Östlund
The Chatter:
I really don’t like this list at all. Plenty of outstanding directing turns this year were overlooked, especially by women. Sarah Polley should be on this list for sure. I’d like to have seen Chinonye Chukwu for “Till.” Charlotte Wells (“Aftersun”), and Gina Prince-Bythewood (“The Woman King”) are two others frequently mentioned, though I think they’re a step or two lower.
Spielberg got on because he’s Spielberg. The Daniels, as they’re known, won the Director’s Guild Award for EEAAO and it’s one of the most reliable bellwethers.
I don’t mind Field and McDonagh on this list, and will take the latter as the strongest nominee here.
Prediction: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, EEAAO
Pick: Martin McDonagh, “Banshees”
Chris Cross:
No go for Spielberg, Östlund and The Daniels; hello to Sarah Polley, Chinonye Chukwu and Lukas Dhont for “Close.”
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees:
"All That Breathes"
"All the Beauty and the Bloodshed"
"Fire of Love"
"A House Made of Splinters"
"Navalny"
The Chatter:
A pretty good list of nominees this year, especially considering the documentary list usually overlooks worthy films. I’ll take “A House Made of Splinters” because it was one of the most emotional experiences I had at the movies last year. “All That Breathes” is fine but feels less like an observational documentary than set-up storytelling.
Prediction: "Navalny"
Pick: "A House Made of Splinters"
Chris Cross:
In goes “Louis Armstrong's Black & Blues,” out goes "All That Breathes."
Best Documentary Short
The Nominees:
"The Elephant Whisperers"
"Haulout"
"How Do You Measure a Year?"
"The Martha Mitchell Effect"
"Stranger at the Gate"
The Chatter:
Uncharacteristic of me, I did not get to the short films this year, so these categories will be a bit of a shot in the dark.
Prediction:
"Stranger at the Gate"
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees:
“Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio" Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar and Alex Bulkley
"Marcel the Shell with Shoes On" Dean Fleischer Camp, Elisabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan and Paul Mezey
"Puss in Boots: The Last Wish" Joel Crawford and Mark Swift
"The Sea Beast" Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger
"Turning Red" Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins
The Chatter:
Another a down year for animation. I’m trying to even remember when the last time it was up. “Marcel” was the only thing I saw that was truly outstanding. It may get dinged for incorporating so much live action. I liked del Toro’s “Pinocchio” but it took awhile for me to get invested in it.
Prediction: “Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio"
Pick: "Marcel the Shell with Shoes On"
Chris Cross:
Richard Linklater’s warmly nostalgic “Apollo 10½: A Space Age Childhood” deserved a spot; I’ll give the boot to “Puss in Boots.”
Best Animated Short
The Nominees:
"The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse"
"The Flying Sailor"
"Ice Merchants"
"My Year of D**ks"
"An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It"
Prediction: "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse"
Best Live Action Short
The Nominees:
"An Irish Goodbye"
"Ivalu"
"Le Pupille"
"Night Ride"
"The Red Suitcase"
Prediction: "Le Pupille"
Best International Feature
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front" (Germany)
"Argentina, 1985" (Argentina)
"Close" (Belgium)
"EO" (Poland)
"The Quiet Girl" (Ireland)
The Chatter:
The fact “All Quiet on the Western Front” also got nominations for picture, cinematography, screenplay and a few “technical” categories seems to assure it a win. “Close” was my favorite movie of the year and I was glad it at least got this recognition.
Prediction: "All Quiet on the Western Front"
Pick: "Close"
Best Cinematography
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front" James Friend
"Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths" Darius Khondji
"Elvis" Mandy Walker
"Empire of Light" Roger Deakins
"Tár" Florian Hoffmeister
The Chatter:
I think Mandy Walker is going to sneak in here, despite “All Quiet” being touted as the frontrunner. It also being the rare category EEAAO wasn’t nominated in. I’ll take “Empire of Light,” easily the most beautiful film I saw last year.
Prediction: “Elvis”
Pick: "Empire of Light"
Chris Cross:
Hard to knock anyone off this list, thought I’d like to have gotten a spot for “The Banshees of Inisherin.” Maybe “Bardo,” even though I liked its looks.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees:
"The Banshees of Inisherin" Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
"Elvis" Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond
"Everything Everywhere All at Once" Paul Rogers
"Tár" Monika Willi
"Top Gun: Maverick" Eddie Hamilton
The Chatter:
‘Best Editing’ has nowadays been replaced with ‘Most Editing,’ with frenetic, face-paced films getting the nod over beautifully languid ones.
Prediction: EEAAO
Pick: "Tár"
Best Sound
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front"
"Avatar: The Way of Water"
"The Batman"
"Elvis"
"Top Gun: Maverick"
The Chatter:
Another rare open field with EEAAO not getting the nod. I thought the sound design and music of “All Quiet” to be central to its power.
Prediction: "Elvis"
Pick: "All Quiet on the Western Front"
Best Production Design
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front" Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper
"Avatar: The Way of Water" Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole
"Babylon" Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino
"Elvis" Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn
"The Fabelmans" Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O'Hara
The Chatter:
I think this one’s between “Elvis” and “Babylon.” The latter turned a lot of Hollywood types off for its nasty revisionist history of silent-era filmmaking, but the sets and backdrops were amazing.
Prediction: "Elvis"
Pick: "Babylon"
Best Original Score
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front," Volker Bertelmann
"Babylon," Justin Hurwitz
"The Banshees of Inisherin," Carter Burwell
"Everything Everywhere All at Once," Son Lux
"The Fabelmans," John Williams
The Chatter:
This contest is pretty open. It will test the power of EEAAO’s sweep if it takes the award despite not having a very memorable musical soundscape. John Williams is a sentimental choice for his last score after one of the all-time great careers. I’ll take the atonal, disturbing “All Quiet” score for its power.
Prediction: EEAAO
Pick: "All Quiet on the Western Front"
Best Song
The Nominees:
"Applause" from "Tell It like a Woman"
"Hold My Hand" from "Top Gun: Maverick"
"Lift Me Up" from "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
"Naatu Naatu" from "RRR"
"This Is A Life" from "Everything Everywhere All at Once"
The Chatter:
I did not care for “RRR,” but its musical numbers carried the day and “Naatu Naatu” was the best of them.
Prediction: "Naatu Naatu"
Pick: "Naatu Naatu"
Best Makeup and Hair
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front"
"The Batman"
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
"Elvis"
"The Whale"
The Chatter:
Another tough call. “Batman” should contend just for its work making Colin Farrell completely unrecognizable as the Penguin. I’m thinking “The Whale” will win because it’s a film carried but its lead actor and the makeup and prosthetics are so central to that performance.
Prediction: "The Whale"
Pick: "The Whale"
Best Costume Design
The Nominees:
"Babylon"
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever"
"Elvis"
"Everything Everywhere All at Once"
"Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris"
The Chatter:
Another test of the sweeps power of EEAAO. It did feature a lot of amazing costumes, but so did “Babylon.” You could argue “Elvis” made use of its costumes more than any other film than perhaps “Mrs. Harris,” but not many people saw that one. A toss-up.
Prediction: EEAAO
Pick: "Elvis"
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees:
"All Quiet on the Western Front" Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank and Kamil Jafar
"Avatar: The Way of Water" Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
"The Batman" Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands and Dominic Tuohy
"Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White and Dan Sudick
"Top Gun: Maverick" Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
The Chatter:
“Avatar” should win this, and might, though voters likely get confused about where the line between CGI animation and special effects begins and ends. Curious that EEAAO was not nominated here, especially considering it’s a visual effects bonanza — maybe it’s not as poised for a huge sweep as I thought?
Prediction: "Avatar: The Way of Water"
Pick: "Avatar: The Way of Water"