Fearless Oscar predictions 2024
It'll be less Barben and mostly Heimer this Sunday as "Oppenheimer" is poised to dominate the Academy Awards. Check out our complete picks & predictions.
A few months ago all the awards talk focused on “Barbenheimer,” the much-hyped launch of two high-profile films on the same day. Both went on to considerable critical and commercial success, with “Oppenheimer” grossing nearly a billion dollars and “Barbie” garnering half again as much.
For awhile in the fall it seemed “Killers of the Flower Moon” might play the spoiler, opening to some of the best reception of Martin Scorsese’s career. Since then its star has fallen — thankfully in my view — as more people recognized it as a turgid, overlong dirge of a movie that’s ostensibly about the degradation of native peoples, but one that shunts them firmly to the background of their own story.
Since then, as the run-up awards rolled out, things have come more sharply into focus. And it's clear this year's Academy Awards on Sunday will be less Barben and mostly Heimer, with "Oppenheimer" poised for a dominating night. Expect it to win Best Picture and Best Director, at the very least.
The acting awards seem equally set, with the same four thespians winning virtually every preliminary award, including the highly predictive Screen Actors Guild honors.
Still, there are always a few surprises on Oscar night -- and my prognosticating proboscis sniffs some possible interesting twists.
Here then are my annual predictions and picks in all 23 Oscar categories. In addition, where appropriate I’ll tell you which nominees I think didn’t deserve a nomination at all — and who should replace them. This is known as the vaunted “Chris Cross.”
Let’s go!
Best Picture
The Nominees:
"American Fiction"
"Anatomy of a Fall"
"Barbie"
"The Holdovers"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Maestro"
"Oppenheimer"
"Past Lives"
"Poor Things"
"The Zone of Interest"
The Chatter:
It’s all “Oppenheimer.”
Christopher Nolan's epic exploration of the man behind the atomic bomb has run the table on the preliminary awards, including the Producers Guild and Directors Guild prizes. In an odd scheduling quirk, the Writers Guild awards will actually be announced a month after the Oscars.
I respect "Oppenheimer" but don't love it. Same with "Barbie," though I think it's a bolder and more original vision.
I'm pretty underwhelmed with this list in general. The surprise inclusion of two foreign language films, "Anatomy of a Fall" and "The Zone of Interest," threw many for a loop. I’ll take Alexander’s acerbic yet poignant reteam with Paul Giamatti, though “All of Us Strangers,” a total shutout in nominations, is my top pick.
Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
Pick: “The Holdovers”
Chris Cross:
Sayonara “Anatomy,” “Killers,” and “Maestro,” hello “All of Us Strangers,” “Dumb Money” and “Rustin.”
Best Actress
The Nominees:
Annette Bening, "Nyad"
Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Sandra Hüller, "Anatomy of a Fall"
Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"
Emma Stone, "Poor Things"
The Chatter:
Lily Gladstone has this locked up, though I'd argue it's not even a leading role. Her character is marginalized to the point of disappearance except as a passive receptacle of victimhood. If she wasn't narrating we'd forget she was in the movie.
Aside from Gladstone, Sandra Hüller is the weakest of the field, and gets unfairly blamed for "stealing" Margot Robbie's spot. (She was much better in “The Zone of Interest.”) Annette Bening got in as a respected past nominee, but she was solid playing a not particularly likeable character.
Emma Stone gave the performance of the year, in any category -- bold, uncompromising, off-putting and yet strangely sympathetic. I doubt many -- or any -- of her peers would've even attempted this role.
Quick thought experiment: Can you picture Stone in Robbie's role in "Barbie?" I absolutely can. Now try to imagine Robbie in "Poor Things." Doesn't really click, does it?
Prediction: Lily Gladstone
Pick: Emma Stone
Chris Cross:
So long Gladstone and Hüller; welcome Jessica Chastain in "Memory" and Fantasia Barrino from "The Color Purple."
Best Actor
The Nominees:
Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"
Colman Domingo, "Rustin"
Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"
Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"
Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"
The Chatter:
This is a really good list. I was extremely happy to see Jeffrey Wright and Colman Domingo get in, despite their films not really breaking through into popular consciousness -- as they deserved to. A lot of Black films suffered the same fate this year.
If there's one acting category that could see a surprise this Sunday, it's this one. Paul Giamatti is adored in the industry and there's much sympathy for his snub for "Sideways" nearly two decades ago. And it was a mesmerizing performance as a very distinct and empathetic character, despite his many rough edges and sharp qualities. He also did win at the Golden Globes, which splits the acting awards for dramas and comedies.
Cillian Murphy was fine indeed in "Oppenheimer," but the movie was the star, not the guy at the top of the bill. Colman Domingo was the opposite, dominating every scene in “Rustin.” He came close to being my pick.
If I have to axe one, I'll knock out Bradley Cooper. "Maestro" was a perfectly good biopic, beautifully shot that just didn't fill its full sails. Meanwhile, Andrew Scott anchored "All of Us Strangers" with grace and poignancy.
Prediction: Cillian Murphy
Pick: Paul Giamatti
Chris Cross:
Fine, Bradley Cooper. Ola, Andrew Scott.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees:
Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"
Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"
America Ferrera, "Barbie"
Jodie Foster, "Nyad"
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"
The Chatter:
Another really strong category. I was a little annoyed at Jodie Foster's inclusion until I finally saw "Nyad," and she steals the show. I just love how she's been the author of her own career and only seems to work when she finds something that really clicks with her.
Randolph was terrific in "The Hangovers." I loved the way she can barely conceal her contempt for the snooty white folks performing sympathy at her. She’s a solid lock to win.
But I'll take America Ferrera for her incredibly emotionally resilient turn in "Barbie." Heck, she could've gotten another nod for her role in "Dumb Money."
I'd like to get Rachel McAdams in here for "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret." but I don't have anyone I'd knock out.
Prediction: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Pick: America Ferrera
Chris Cross:
I’ll stand pat here.
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees:
Sterling K. Brown, "American Fiction"
Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"
Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"
Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things"
The Chatter:
Very very very happy to see Sterling K. Brown make the list, and he's my pick. His character starts the movie as kind of a playboy dickhead, and then he goes away for a while and when he comes back he's a little more interesting and layered, rinse and repeat, and by the end he's the emotional center of the film.
RDJ is beloved in Hollywood for many reasons and has a really meaty part he sinks his teeth into, so good for him on his virtually guaranteed win.
Ryan Gosling took something seemingly silly and vapid and gave it heft and depth.
I've seen Robert De Niro do what he did in "Flowers" a hundred times, and better. Mark Ruffalo was fun in "Poor Things" but his character's arc doesn't really track.
How about some love for Jason Bateman as the smarmy marketing guy with a heart of gold in "Air?" I also really liked Glenn Howerton in "BlackBerry."
Prediction: Robert Downey Jr.
Pick: Sterling K. Brown
Chris Cross:
Robert De Niro and Mark Ruffalo go, Glenn Howerton and Jason Bateman come.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees:
“Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet, Arthur Harari
“The Holdovers,” David Hemingson
“Past Lives,” Celine Song
“May December,” Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
“Maestro,” Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer.
The Chatter:
This is the harder of the two writing categories to pick as none of the nominees are serious Best Picture contenders.
Academy voters love to use the screenplay categories to reward new/young filmmakers. So I'm going to predict Celine Song will win for "Past Lives." There was some talk of her being snubbed for best director but it's pretty rare to get that nod with your first film. A win here is their way of rewarding her.
I'll take David Hemingson for writing the most Alexander Payne script Payne didn't actually write.
I'm not wild on any of the other three. "May December" was uneven, "Maestro" was standard biopic writing and "Anatomy of a Fall" was just plain boring.
Prediction: “Past Lives”
Pick: “The Holdovers”
Chris Cross:
No-no “May December,” “Maestro” and “Anatomy of a Fall;” yes yes “Rustin,” “Beau Is Afraid” and “Memory.”
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees:
“American Fiction,” Cord Jefferson
“Barbie,” Greta Gerwig, Noah Baumbach
“The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer
“Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things,” Tony McNamara
The Chatter:
The smart money's on "Oppenheimer" for a big sweep, but I dunno.
I think voting members of the Academy genuinely feel bad about Greta Gerwig not getting a director's nod, so this might be their way of saying sorry. "Barbie" is a much more subversive and smart movie than it's given credit for.
Of this list I'll pick Cord Jefferson's audacious debut for "American Fiction," even though I think his screenwriting wasn't as sharp as his direction.
For my money you could've easily cut at least 45 minutes out of "Oppenheimer."
A lot of films I would like to have seen nominated. "Dumb Money." "BlackBerry." "All of Us Strangers." "Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret.". Can't find room for them all.
Prediction: “Oppenheimer”
Pick: "American Fiction”
Chris Cross:
Bomb “Oppenheimer,” light it up “All of Us Strangers.”
Best Director
The Nominees:
Jonathan Glazer, "The Zone of Interest"
Yorgos Lanthimos, "Poor Things"
Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"
Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall"
The Chatter:
Blarg to this whole list. Uninspiring and uninteresting.
Christopher Nolan is a mortal lock. He's won every single other award including the Directors Guild award, which has nearly always gone to the Oscar winner, the BAFTAs on down. Done and done.
I respect "Oppenheimer" but it's almost more of an assault than filmmaking. Nolan tries to overwhelm rather than enlighten or entertain us. I'll still pick him as the best on this list.
After "The Irishman" and "Killers of the Flower Moon," I'm ready for Martin Scorsese to hang it up -- words I never thought I'd say. He needs to get over himself and make a tight 92-minute crime thriller just to prove he still can.
Ditto what I said above about the boredom of "Anatomy of a Fall." “Zone of Interest” is way better.
I've never been high on Yorgos Lanthimos, who often seems to make weird movies just for the sake of weirdness. But "Poor Things," like "The Favourite," shows that his weird Expressionistic existentialism can work when bound to a more or less cohesive narrative.
Prediction: Christopher Nolan
Pick: Christopher Nolan
Chris Cross:
Yep, I'm swapping out the entire roster. I'll take Greta Gerwig, Cord Jefferson, Andrew Haigh, Alexander Payne and Blitz Bazawule for "Barbie," "American Fiction," "All of Us Strangers," "The Holdovers" and "The Color Purple," respectively.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees:
"20 Days in Mariupol"
"Bobi Wine: The People's President"
"The Eternal Memory"
"Four Daughters"
"To Kill a Tiger"
The Chatter:
Once again the Academy documentary membership manages to overlook terrific films with some off-the-wall picks I hadn't even heard of. Then I finally get to see them and have a hard time disagreeing with the choices. I didn't see "To Kill a Tiger," and "Four Daughters" was the only one I thought rather weak.
"20 Days in Mariupol" is clearly head and shoulders above the rest, and is an important look at the ongoing war of aggression in Ukraine.
Prediction: "20 Days in Mariupol"
Pick: "20 Days in Mariupol"
Chris Cross:
"Four Daughters" gets bumped for "The Lionheart."
Best Documentary Short
The Nominees:
"The ABCs of Book Banning"
"The Barber of Little Rock"
"Island in Between"
"The Last Repair Shop"
"Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó"
The Chatter:
The only one of these I didn't get to see is "The ABCs of Book Banning," which seems to be the favorite.
Prediction: "The ABCs of Book Banning"
Pick: "The Barber of Little Rock"
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees:
"The Boy and the Heron"
"Elemental"
"Nimona"
"Robot Dreams"
"Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
The Chatter:
I think this is like the 10th year in a row I've said this was a down year for animation. When is it going to be up again?
"Nimona" was the best of the bunch by far. It was looking like it might be the year no Disney film got a nomination but "Elemental" snuck in, undeservedly.
Prediction: "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
Pick: "Nimona"
Chris Cross:
Erase "Elemental" and draw in "The Inventor."
Best Animated Short
The Nominees:
"Letter to a Pig"
"Ninety-Five Senses"
"Our Uniform"
"Pachyderme"
"War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko"
Prediction: "War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko"
Pick: "Ninety-Five Senses"
Best Live Action Short
The Nominees:
"The After"
"Invincible"
"Knight of Fortune"
"Red, White and Blue"
"The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar"
The Chatter: Wes Anderson finally gets an Oscar, ironically for a short film.
Prediction: "The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar"
Pick: "The After"
Best International Feature
The Nominees:
"Io Capitano," Italy
"Perfect Days," Japan
"Society of the Snow," Spain
"The Teachers' Lounge," Germany
"The Zone of Interest," United Kingdom
The Chatter:
A lot of really good international films this year. Strangely "Anatomy of a Fall" did not get in here despite earning a bunch of other topline nominations. That seems to leave the field open to "The Zone of Interest."
Prediction: "The Zone of Interest"
Pick: "The Zone of Interest"
Best Cinematography
The Nominees:
"El Conde"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Maestro"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"
The Chatter:
It's the battle of the black-and-whites! Two nominees are monochrome and two others make extensive use of black-and-white photography or sections washed out of color.
Only question is if "Poor Things" can overcome an "Oppenheimer" sweep.
Prediction: "Oppenheimer"
Pick: "Poor Things"
Chris Cross:
"The Color Purple" was a symphony of color and motion. "Killers of the Flower Moon" was good looking but nothing special.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees:
"Anatomy of a Fall"
"The Holdovers"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"
The Chatter:
The within-scene editing in "Oppenheimer" was terrific, but how about the total lack of editing throughout? Way. Too. Long.
Prediction: "Oppenheimer"
Pick: "Poor Things"
Best Sound
The Nominees:
"The Creator"
"Maestro"
"Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One"
"Oppenheimer"
"The Zone of Interest"
The Chatter:
The soundscape in "Oppenheimer" was genuinely amazing, and central to the storytelling in a way most films don't even attempt.
Prediction: "Oppenheimer"
Pick: "Oppenheimer"
Best Production Design
The Nominees:
"Barbie"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Napoleon"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"
The Chatter:
This may be where the "Oppenheimer" sweep falls short. Production design was central to both "Poor Things" and "Barbie," though it's possible they may split the vote. "Napoleon" had amazing sets and backgrounds as well.
Prediction: "Barbie"
Pick: "Poor Things"
Best Original Score
The Nominees:
"American Fiction"
"Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"
Prediction: "Oppenheimer"
Pick: "Poor Things"
Best Song
The Nominees:
"It Never Went Away" from "American Symphony"
"I'm Just Ken" from "Barbie"
"What Was I Made For?" from "Barbie"
"The Fire Inside" from "Flamin' Hot"
"Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)" from "Killers of the Flower Moon"
The Chatter:
Finally, no "Oppenheimer" competition! It helps that it didn't have a song.
Prediction: "What Was I Made For?" from "Barbie"
Pick: "I'm Just Ken" from "Barbie"
Best Makeup and Hair
The Nominees:
"Golda"
"Maestro"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"
"Society of the Snow"
The Chatter:
It's Bradley Cooper's Jew Nose in "Maestro" versus Helen Mirren's Jew Nose in "Golda!"
Prediction: "Maestro"
Pick: "Maestro"
Best Costume Design
The Nominees:
"Barbie"
"Killers of the Flower Moon"
"Napoleon"
"Oppenheimer"
"Poor Things"
The Chatter:
Very, very good costumes this year, and all played a big role in their movies' storytelling. I have to think this is one for "Barbie" to lose, though don't count out "Poor Things."
Prediction: "Barbie"
Pick: "Poor Things"
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees:
"The Creator"
"Godzilla Minus One"
"Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3"
"Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One"
"Napoleon"
The Chatter:
The momentum here seems to be with "Godzilla Minus One" for doing a lot of cool creature effects with a small budget. But I'll take "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" for its myriad creature effects that were both dazzling and heartrending.
Prediction: "Godzilla Minus One"
Pick: "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3"
Wow. You called a lot of the actual winners. Well done.