Fearless Oscar predictions 2025
With my favorite and the former front-runner, "Emilia Pérez," felled by bad tweets, "Anora" seems poised to be this year's 'little movie that could' at the Academy Awards.
It’s pretty rare that my favorite film of the year actually wins the Best Picture Academy Award — “Green Book” was the last one, and you’d have to go back to 2004 for the one before that. It’s looking like 2025 will be no different.
Although I didn’t have a runaway champion among last year’s films, “Emilia Pérez” led the way on my Top 10 list almost by default. I never conceived of it as a major awards contender, because it was just too weird: a mostly Spanish musical about a Mexican drug cartel leader who undergoes gender transition surgery and reemerges into a new life with the help of her lawyer/best friend.
So I was surprised when it took an early lead in the pre-awards buildup, culminating in a win for Best Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes. With no other single movie getting much traction, “Perez” seemed poised for an unlikely march to the Oscars until star Karla Sofía Gascón’s old tweets and statements emerged.
Virtually overnight, the film’s support tanked.
I’m old-fashioned and think the awards should be doled out to the individuals who deserve them most, regardless of their odious personal beliefs. Gascón’s statements were ugly, but the reaction to them has shown itself their equal.
“Perez” seemed to get it from both ends: the usual anti-trans hysteria from reactionaries, and then the reliably liberal Hollywood establishment’s howling about nonconforming viewpoints.
So what next? Read on, but the short version is it looks like an even more unlikely film, Sean Baker’s “Anora,” is poised to become this year’s ‘little movie that could.’ Many are comparing it to “CODA” from a few years ago.
I did manage to see every single film nominated this year, which often isn’t an easy task, particularly when you get to the documentaries, international films and shorts.
Here are my annual predictions and personal picks in all 23 Oscar categories. In addition, I take the bold added step of selecting some nominees I think didn’t deserve the nod, and replacing them with other films that did — aka the “Chris Cross.” (Because I’m Chris, and I’m crossing them off the list.)
We’re off!
Best Picture
The Nominees:
"Anora"
"The Brutalist"
"A Complete Unknown"
"Conclave"
"Dune: Part Two”
"Emilia Pérez"
"I'm Still Here"
"Nickel Boys"
"The Substance"
"Wicked"
The Chatter:
I laid out the “why not” for “Emilia Pérez” in the introduction, so what’s the case for “Anora?” I was not impressed by it, finding it a rogues’ gallery of irredeemable characters I didn’t care about. My colleague, Alec Toombs, immediately declared it one of the year’s best in his review.
An early sign was “Anora” winning at the Critics Choice Awards, the broadcast critics group of which I’m a voting member. Because of the delays caused by the L.A. fires, our votes were actually recorded Jan. 12, before the Gascón brouhaha. So clearly there was sentiment in its favor before.
It’s been on a strong run since, picking up the top award from the Director’s Guild and Producer’s Guild, which are highly predictive of the Oscars.
Looking at the competition, there’s no classic Best Picture pedigree film — a historical drama with big stars and ritzy production values. “Conclave” comes closest, and if there’s a clear competitor to “Anora,” this is it. It won the BAFTA award for best picture from the Brits and the Screen Actors Guild top prize. I put it #3 on my list, so I’m cheering for this stalking horse.
I also liked “The Brutalist” a lot, and it has a puncher’s chance, though I think some academy traditionalists feel threatened by its tiny budget and use of A.I. for backgrounds and “help” with Adrien Brody’s Hungarian accent.
“Dune: Part Two” and “Wicked” were this year’s inclusions for movies that were actually box office hits. They’ll get some love in the ‘technical categories’ but are not contenders for the biggest prizes.
Prediction: “Anora”
Pick: “Emilia Pérez”
Chris Cross:
Overall, this is actually a pretty good list. Not a lot of these made my Top 10 but I found them worthy and interesting. I had big problems with “The Substance” on a conceptual level and with “Nickel Boys” on its directorial execution. I already mentioned my indifference to “Anora,” and “Dune: Part Two” was just plain boring — I’ll still take David Lynch’s punk version.
“Anora,” “The Substance,” “Nickel Boys” and “Dune: Part Two go out, “Civil War,” “Nosferatu,” “Sing Sing” and “A Real Pain” come in.
Best Actress
The Nominees:
Cynthia Erivo, "Wicked"
Karla Sofia Gascón, "Emilia Pérez"
Mikey Madison, "Anora"
Demi Moore, "The Substance"
Fernanda Torres, "I'm Still Here"
The Chatter:
Demi Moore seems to have this one pretty well locked up, winning pretty much every preliminary award. It’s a real-world story Hollywood loves: a redemptive journey for an actress who was red-hot when young, saw their career fall off a cliff when their sexpot days were over and then resurgent with a bold third act. See Jamie Lee Curtis. I don’t get the love for Mikey Madison, who never showed the human being behind the avaricious stripper. I thought Karla Sofia Gascón gave the performance of the year, any category, but she’s canceled now. Fernanda Torres was terrific; of those on this list I’ll take Cynthia Erivo for bringing lots of shading to the good/bad witch. I’m stunned Angelina Jolie got little love for her empathetic turn in “Maria.”
Prediction: Demi Moore
Pick: Karla Sofia Gascón
Chris Cross:
Drop your kit, Mikey Madison; suit up, Angelina Jolie from “Maria.”
Best Actor
The Nominees:
Adrian Brody, "The Brutalist"
Timothée Chalamet, "A Complete Unknown"
Colman Domingo, "Sing Sing"
Ralph Fiennes, "Conclave"
Sebastian Stan, "The Apprentice"
The Chatter:
This one is a real toss-up. It kinda seems crazy that everybody regards Ralph Fiennes as one of the finest actors of his generation, but he’s never won the Oscar — and won’t this year, either. Sebastian Stan’s nomination was a double-shocker: that he got in, and not for the movie people expected, “A Different Man.” Colman Domingo’s my pick, as he was for last year, the rare person to be nominated in consecutive years (and lose both times, probably). It seems to come down to heartthrob Timothée Chalamet and seasoned character actor Adrian Brody, who won it 23 years ago. Chalamet won the SAG award, and actors are the biggest voting bloc in the Academy, so finger to the wind I see it swinging toward youth. I’ve not been a big fan of Chalamet but he won me over playing Bob Dylan.
Prediction: Timothée Chalamet
Pick: Colman Domingo
Chris Cross:
Stan’s nomination is the weakest, but I actually liked him more in “The Apprentice” than “A Different Man.” And I don’t see another strong case to knock him out. I’ll stand pat.
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees:
Monica Barbaro, "A Complete Unknown"
Ariana Grande, "Wicked"
Felicity Jones, "The Brutalist"
Isabella Rossellini, "Conclave"
Zoe Saldaña, "Emilia Pérez"
The Chatter:
The most immediate observation in this category is that Ariana Grande and Zoe Saldaña are clear cases of category-hopping, as they obviously had leading roles. It doesn’t seem to be hurting Saldaña, who has pretty much run the table in lead-up awards despite the “Pérez” hate. I’ll take Monica Barbaro, a surprise inclusion who really added heart and soul to Joan Baez and made her seem like a real counterpart to Bob Dylan rather than just “the love interest.” I adore Isabella Rossellini but she barely speaks in “Conclave,” and her nomination feels like an obligatory nod to a grand dame of international cinema.
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña
Pick: Monica Barbaro
Chris Cross:
Go in peace, Isabella Rossellini. Welcome, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor from “Nickel Boys.”
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees:
Yura Borisov, "Anora"
Kieran Culkin, "A Real Pain"
Edward Norton, "A Complete Unknown"
Guy Pearce, "The Brutalist"
Jeremy Strong, "The Apprentice"
The Chatter:
Culkin appears to be a mortal lock here, winning every single previous award I can think of. His is a very flashy role, the sort specifically written to win awards. That’s not a knock; he had to live up to the expectations of the part, and nailed it. He’s also carved out a nice little career in the shadow of his older brother. I was super over the moon that Edward Norton got a nod; he’s such a heartfelt presence in “A Complete Unknown,” the adopted father figure who eventually sees his offspring surpass him. Jeremy Strong and Guy Pearce were strong villains in their movies. On the other hand, Bill Skarsgård took what could have been a laughable reframing of the vampire legend and turned it into something dark and compelling.
Prediction: Kieran Culkin
Pick: Edward Norton
Chris Cross:
Dosveedanya, Yura Borisov. Dobro pozhalovat, Bill Skarsgård.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees:
"Anora," Sean Baker
"The Brutalist," Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold
"A Real Pain," Jesse Eisenberg
"September 5," Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder
"The Substance," Coralie Fargeat
The Chatter:
Not a lot of people saw “September 5,” but it’s a very tightly wound and well-told take on the 1972 Munich Olympics terrorist attack told from the perspective of the TV sports journalists covering it. This is a tough category to predict, but Sean Baker’s “Anora” seems to be in the lead. “A Real Pain” has some momentum here with wins at BAFTA and Golden Globes. I think the Academy wants to reward the bold vision of Coralie Fargeat for “The Substance,” and since it seems Baker will win the director’s prize I’m predicting they’ll give the screenplay award to her instead as a consolation — something the writing categories are famously used for.
Prediction: "The Substance," Coralie Fargeat
Pick: "September 5," Tim Fehlbaum & Moritz Binder
Chris Cross:
Another kick to the curb for “Anora;” a welcoming curtsy for “Civil War” by Alex Garland, which made the profoundly disturbing seem plausible.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees:
"A Complete Unknown," Jay Cocks & James Mangold
"Conclave," Peter Straughan
"Emilia Pérez," Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain & Nicolas Livecchi
"Nickel Boys," RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
"Sing Sing," Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin & John "Divine G" Whitfield
The Chatter:
Great list. A hard category to predict. I actually like the screenplay for “Nickel Boys” just fine. It won the award from the Writer’s Guild and could be dark horse contender. I just couldn’t stand the director’s look-at-me theatrics. (The Director’s Guild gave him their award for best first-time director, so what do I know.) “Emilia Pérez” is a truly audacious piece of storytelling that’s clearly not for everyone. “Conclave” has the best shot with previous wins at the BAFTAs and Critics Choice. “A Complete Unknown” has an outsider’s chance with its harmonious mix of music and mythology. “Sing Sing” could get the sentimental/redemption vote. I think the screenplay for “Wicked” is much smarter than it’s given credit for, with each character representing a stereotype that is ultimately transcended.
Prediction: "Conclave," Peter Straughan
Pick: "Emilia Pérez," Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain & Nicolas Livecchi
Chris Cross:
Abracadabra, “Wicked.” You are banished, “Nickel Boys.”
Best Director
The Nominees:
Sean Baker, "Anora"
Brady Corbet, "The Brutalist"
James Mangold, "A Complete Unknown"
Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"
Coralie Fargeat, "The Substance"
The Chatter:
The race appears to come down to Coralie Fargeat and Sean Baker. Baker won the Director’s Guild award, which is one of the most highly predictive precursors, so I’m taking him. Personally I think Fargeat was indulging in the objectification of women while ostensibly decrying it. If “The Substance” had been directed by a dude we’d all be tut-tutting about why so much nudity. Jon M. Chu hasn’t gotten the credit he deserves for making “Wicked” both an amazing spectacle and a very human story. Corbet is a relative newcomer but actually won the Golden Globe, so don’t write him off. I’ll stick with Jacques Audiard for "Emilia Pérez" because keeping that crazy thing inside the lanes was quite a task.
Prediction: Sean Baker, "Anora"
Pick: Jacques Audiard, "Emilia Pérez"
Chris Cross:
It’s your turn to sleep, Coralie Fargeat. Jon M. Chu, arise and strut your stuff.
Best Documentary Feature
The Nominees:
"Black Box Diaries," Shiori Itō
"No Other Land," Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Yuval Abraham & Rachel Szor
"Porcelain War," Brendan Bellomo & Slava Leontyev
"Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat," Johan Grimonprez
"Sugarcane," Julian Brave NoiseCat & Emily Kassie
The Chatter:
Another weird year for documentary features, with a lot of terrific ones left by the side and some undeserving ones in their place. Most people don’t realize the nominees in each category are determined only by votes of members in that branch. So the actors pick the acting categories, the directors pick the directors, etc. The documentary branch clearly is a bunch of loons because they manage to consistently ignore the best doc features, the classic example being “Hoop Dreams.” They also seem to favor politically opinionated docs, whereas I prefer mine as journalistic explorations. I’ll keep “Porcelain War,” a look at the Ukraine war through the lens of artists, and “Black Box Diaries,” one Japanese journalist’s journey bringing rape charges against a high-ranking official. The rest can go. “Sugarcane” was just plain boring and should’ve been a short film. “Soundtrack” seems very impressed with itself, trying to draw a parallel between American jazz and the 1960s Congolese unrest, while ignoring a lot of inconvenient history. “No Other Land” is a whole lot of running shaky-cam and “Jews bad.”
Prediction: “Porcelain War”
Pick: “Porcelain War”
Chris Cross:
Au revoir, “Soundtrack,” “Sugarcane” and “No Other Land. Bonjour, “Ennio,” “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” and “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin.”
Best Animated Feature
The Nominees:
"Flow"
"Inside Out 2"
"Memoir of a Snail"
"Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl"
"The Wild Robot"
The Chatter:
“The Wild Robot” seems like the clear front-runner here, though I’ll take the stark, wordless beauty and fairy tale tone of “Flow.” I love that the very quirky, morose and adult “Memoir of a Snail” got in here.
Prediction: "The Wild Robot"
Pick: “Flow”
Chris Cross:
The mournful Japanese “Look Back” deserves a spot more than the very OK "Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl."
Best Documentary Short
The Nominees:
"Death by Numbers"
"I Am Ready, Warden"
"Incident"
"Instruments of a Beating Heart"
"The Only Girl in the Orchestra"
The Chatter:
A terrific slate of doc shorts this year. I think “Incident” has the edge because it’s a timely, topical look at a police killing of Black man told entirely through surveillance cameras. “I Am Ready, Warden” manages to show a searing but fair look at the death penalty.
Prediction: "Incident"
Pick: "I Am Ready, Warden"
Best Animated Short
The Nominees:
"Beautiful Men"
"In the Shadow of the Cypress"
"Magic Candies"
"Wander to Wonder"
"Yuck!"
The Chatter:
Just a so-so group of animated shorts this year.
Prediction: "Magic Candies"
Pick: "In the Shadow of the Cypress"
Best Live Action Short
The Nominees:
"A Lien"
"Anuja"
"I'm Not a Robot"
"The Last Ranger"
"The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent"
The Chatter: A pretty good slate, not great. With the current turmoil over immigration, I think “A Lien” will get the votes.
Prediction: "A Lien"
Pick: "Anuja"
Best International Feature
The Nominees:
"I'm Still Here," Walter Salles (Brazil)
"The Girl with the Needle," Magnus von Horn (Denmark)
"Emilia Pérez," Jacques Audiard (France)
"The Seed of the Sacred Fig," Mohammad Rasoulof (Germany)
"Flow," Miguel Gomes (Latvia)
The Chatter:
A strong set of films this year. "Emilia Pérez" would seem to have this locked up, but then the tweets. “Flow” got its honor just getting nominated here and in animation. Plus people still think of this as the “foreign language” category and it has no words or language. I think “I’m Still Here” will win carried by the strength of Fernanda Torres’ lead performance. Hard to knock any film out, but the greatly neglected “Los Frikis” deserves a spot.
Prediction: "I'm Still Here"
Pick: "Emilia Pérez"
Chris Cross: Stick it, "The Girl with the Needle." Lick it, “Los Frikis.”
Best Cinematography
The Nominees:
"The Brutalist," Lol Crawley
"Dune: Part Two," Greig Fraser
"Emilia Pérez," Paul Guillaume
"Maria," Edward Lachman
"Nosferatu," Jarin Blaschke
The Chatter:
A lot of good work here. I’d love for “Nosferatu” to win, and it’s got a good shot. “Maria” actually won the award from the American Cinematographer Society. “The Brutalist” seems to be in the running; people are astonished a movie made for $10 million can look so good. “Dune: Part Two” will be rewarded for its visual effects, not its camera work.
Prediction: "Nosferatu"
Pick: "Nosferatu"
Chris Cross:
I have my problems with “The Substance,” but visually it’s stunning. Snip-snip to “Dune: Part Two.”
Best Film Editing
The Nominees:
"Anora," Sean Baker
"The Brutalist," Dávid Jancsó
"Conclave," Nick Emerson
"Emilia Pérez," Juliette Welfling
"Wicked," Myron Kerstein
The Chatter:
Always a very hard category to predict. The professional association group, the American Cinema Editors, actually doesn’t give out their Eddie Awards until after the Oscars, on March 14. “Challengers” won at Critics Choice and didn’t even get nominated. “The Substance” also seems like a snub. I’m not sure what “Anora” is doing here; there’s nothing standout about its editing. I’ll throw up a smoke signal for “Conclave,” which has excellent pacing for a movie about a bunch of Catholic dudes talking.
Prediction: "Conclave"
Pick: "Conclave"
Chris Cross: Strip, “Anora.” Here’s your coat, “The Substance.”
Best Sound
The Nominees:
"A Complete Unknown"
"Dune: Part Two"
"Emilia Pérez"
"Wicked"
"The Wild Robot"
The Chatter:
Another category that’s often a shot in the dark. It and visual effects tend to go to science fiction or action spectacles, so I’ll lean that way.
Prediction: "Dune: Part Two"
Pick: "The Wild Robot"
Best Production Design
The Nominees:
"The Brutalist," Judy Becker
"Conclave," Suzie Davies
"Dune: Part Two," Patrice Vermette
"Nosferatu," Craig Lathrop
"Wicked," Nathan Crowley
The Chatter:
This, makeup and costumes have to go to “Wicked,” right? It was just such a feast for the eyes. (And ears!) “Conclave” did a great job of recreating the secretive interior of the Vatican. “The Brutalist,” as a story about an architect, is basically an exercise in production design. I think I’ll pick “Nosferatu,” which had a very tactile, organic, rotting feel to it.
Prediction: “Wicked”
Pick: "Nosferatu"
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees:
"A Different Man"
"Emilia Pérez"
"Nosferatu"
"The Substance"
"Wicked"
The Chatter:
I just predicted “Wicked” had to win, but “A Different Man” relied so much of its storytelling on Sebastian Stan’s transformation. “Nosferatu” is also in the running, and you can’t count “The Substance,” though its body horror was mostly achieved through visual effects.
Prediction: “Wicked”
Pick: "A Different Man"
Best Costume Design
The Nominees:
"A Complete Unknown," Arianne Phillips
"Conclave," Lisy Christl
"Gladiator II," Janty Yates
"Nosferatu," Linda Muir
"Wicked," Paul Tazewell
The Chatter:
OK, this one “Wicked” just has to win, or a thousand Broadway groupies will rush the stage with torches. A lot of great work in “Nosferatu” and “Conclave,” too. People don’t really appreciate how important costumes can be to a film.
Prediction: “Wicked”
Pick: “Wicked”
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees:
"Alien: Romulus"
"Better Man"
"Dune: Part Two"
"Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes"
"Wicked"
The Chatter:
Just a reminder that “Alien: Romulus” has more Oscar nominations than “Civil War.”
Prediction: "Dune: Part Two"
Pick: "Dune: Part Two"
Best Original Score
The Nominees:
"The Brutalist," Daniel Blumberg
"Conclave," Volker Bertelmann
"Emilia Pérez," Clément Ducol & Camille
"Wicked," John Powell & Stephen Schwartz
"The Wild Robot," Kris Bowers
The Chatter:
“Challengers” won this category at both Golden Globes and Critics Choice and didn’t even get the Academy nomination. Clearly, some people are as unimpressed by it as I was. “The Brutalist” is the most esoteric of these but also in some ways the most effective. “Conclave” has a shot, but in the end I think the movie that’s actually a musical will be recognized for just that.
Prediction: "Wicked"
Pick: "The Brutalist"
Best Song
The Nominees:
"Never Too Late," "Elton John: Never Too Late" (Elton John & Brandi Carlile)
"El Mal," "Emilia Pérez" (Clement Ducol, Camille & Jacques Audiard)
"Mi Camino," "Emilia Pérez" (Clement Ducol & Camille)
"Like a Bird," "Sing Sing" (Adrian Quesada & Abraham Alexander)
"The Journey," "The Six Triple Eight" (Diane Warren)
The Chatter:
A lot of intrigue going on with this category. You’d worry the two "Emilia Pérez" songs would cancel each other out, but it turns out bad tweets did the job. Diane Warren has been nominated an astonishing 16 times without winning, so maybe this is her year? Except few people saw “The Six Triple Eight.” And, of course, everybody in Hollywood’s an Elton John groupie. You may wonder why none of the songs from “Wicked” got nominated, but the category is for songs written specifically for movies, so they don’t qualify. (A couple of new songs only played over the credits, knocking down their stature.) I dunno, I dunno…
Prediction: "Never Too Late," "Elton John: Never Too Late"
Pick: "El Mal," "Emilia Pérez"
Chris Cross: I would’ve taken the heartbreaking “Perdóname” over “Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez.”