ReelBob: My 2018 Academy Award predictions

By Bob Bloom

Usually, I am excited about the Academy Awards; the drama — if any — of who will, the possibility of the unexpected — an upset or mix-up in the envelopes — and the cringe-worthy moments that make the telecast fun to watch.

But this year, I am mostly apathetic about the Oscars. And I know the reason why. It’s because the majority of nominated movies and performances that touched me during 2017 do not have a chance of walking off the stage with a statue.

A surprise or two may materialize, but I doubt it.

So, here are my prognostications of who will be honored. As in past years, I will separate between fact — who I believe will win — and fantasy, who I wish would win.

This year, the chasm is deeper than any year in a very long time that I can remember.

Best picture

Will win: “The Shape of Water.” Guillermo del Toro’s romantic fantasy about a mute young woman and the sea creature held in captivity at the Cold War laboratory where she works was a lovely and touching movie.

I enjoyed it immensely. It was touching, funny, poignant and offered a message about acceptance and tolerance that resonates in today’s political climate.

For that reason, I am sure it will win. Its closest competition, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” is too strident and angry and makes many people feel a bit uncomfortable.

Should win: For me, “Lady Bird” was a movie I connected with emotionally. I recognized that daughter-mother relationship, having seen it played out in real life time and again in many families.

The film was so real and down-to-earth that it felt as if I was eavesdropping on a neighbor.

In my ideal world, the achievements of “Lady Bird” would be recognized.

Best director Will win: Guillermo del Toro made us believe in not only his fantasy world in “The Shape of Water,” but in the relationships he created among all his characters.

Despite his science fiction-tinged, Cold War premise, he kept the movie grounded in a reality that drew us in and had us caring about the film’s major protagonists.

The movie was a masterful piece of filmmaking and I applaud del Toro for keeping his artistic vision on course from beginning to end.

Should win: Greta Gerwig’s directorial debut in “Lady Bird” was so spot-on that if you pinched yourself at times, you would think you were watching a documentary.

The performances she elicited from her cast felt so real that you nearly forgot they were actors reciting dialogue that had memorized.

Gerwig, who also wrote the script, offered a vision of family dynamics that felt so real and familiar that you immediately recognized many of the situations and people who populated her cinematic Sacramento.

Actor in a Leading Role

Will win: Gary Oldman is a chameleon. The British actor has played everyone from Dracula to Sid Vicious. He loses himself in his portrayals, which is what makes his portrayal of Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour” stand out.

Oldman doesn’t just use the now-clichéd Churchill props — the cigar, walking stick and bowler hat. He brings a vulnerability and insecurity to this giant of a man, which makes his performance all the more real.

Several actors have portrayed Churchill, among them John Lithgow, Timothy Spall, Albert Finney, Robert Hardy, Brendan Gleeson, Michael Gambon, Rod Taylor, Brian Cox, Bob Hoskins and Richard Burton. The majority of these performances ranged from good to great, but none seem as inspired as Oldman’s.

As a close second, I would choose young Timothée Chalamet in “Call Me by Your Name.” His performance was extraordinary for such a young man.

He deftly portrayed a youth on the cusp of manhood who was exploring how he is and who he wants to be.

In any other year, the award would be his, but this year, sentiment will win out and Oldman will walk onstage to collect the statue.

Actress in a Leading Role

Will win: Frances McDormand’s performance in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” was intense and brave. Her character was not likable. She was outspoken, insensitive, crude and blunt. Yet, she displayed the vulnerability and pain that drove her to act the way she did.

McDormand did not care if you liked her character, but she did make you understand and appreciate her.

What she failed to do — for me, at least — was allow me to bond with her emotionally. I felt her anger and agony, but her tough persona did not allow any empathy for her.

And that is why, if I had an Oscar vote, I would have bypassed her.

Should win: Sally Hawkins gave two brilliant Oscar-worthy performances in 2017 that were vastly different and outstanding.

In “Maudie” she played an arthritic-ridden woman who seemed to be a human pin cushion, always been poked by those around her.

Yet she persisted and prevailed.

It was in “The Shape of Water” as the mute Elisa that she earned her nomination. Using her eyes and hands, Hawkins was able to convey the wisdom and depth of Elisa’s understanding, heart and compassion, seeing in a creature that others believed was a menace, a fellow outsider deserving of love and affection.

Her performance was memorable and will stick with me much longer than McDormand’s.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Will win: The smart money is on Sam Rockwell for his performance as Dixon, the racist deputy in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” He has been honored by the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes, so an Academy Award is nearly a certainty.

I found his performance one-dimensional. Even his last-reel redemption could not sway me to embrace Rockwell’s character.

To play devil’s advocate, isn’t that the point? His character is so repugnant that even his so-called conversion can’t allow you to shake the feeling that you will want to shower after coming in contact with Dixon.

Should win: I fell in love with Willem Dafoe’s Bobby, the tough, but fair and warmhearted manager of The Magic Castle motel in “The Florida Project.”

Bobby is a father figure, disciplinarian and protector of those forgotten by society — especially the children — who call the motel on the outskirts of Orlando their home.

Dafoe exuded compassion and understanding for those around him. Sure, he could be tough and frustrated by the residents trying to scrape by anyway — legal or otherwise — they can. But his heart always was in the right place.

Dafoe created a scruffy knight who manned the Castle walls.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Will win: In “I, Tonya,” I wanted to punch Allison Janney’s LaVona so badly that my hand cramped for making such a tight fist.

The mother of Tonya Harding was an abusive bully who could not find a kind word to say to her ice-skating daughter. She was a cruel and manipulative ogre who made Faye Dunaway’s Joan Crawford in “Mommie Dearest” look like Mother Theresa.

Janney, like Rockwell, has been recognized by the Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes, so her taking home an Oscar is likely a forgone conclusion.

Should win: I adored Laurie Metcalfe’s performance in “Lady Bird.” She was a loving mother who constantly fought with her teenage daughter. Though she was often frustrated and upset by her daughter, an undercurrent of love and understanding defined her character.

She wordlessly expressed her devotion to her child. And the scene where she drops off Lady Bird at the airport then silently drives around and back to the departure terminal is a master class in heartbreak and regret.

That scene alone makes her performance a timeless classic.

Animated Feature Film

Will/Should win: “Coco” was an exuberant and funny story of family, tradition and following your heart. It is another winner from Pixar, which seems to have found the magical formula for creating lovable characters and melding them with strong and colorful stories as well as moral clarity.

Documentary (feature)

Will/Should win: “Faces Places” mixes the old with the new as 89-year-old Agnes Varda, one of the leading figures of the French New Wave and 33-year-old famed French photographer JR team up for this road movie in which they share their passion for images as they travel through small villages in the French countryside.

This was a strong year for documentary with other nominees such as “Last Men in Aleppo” and “Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” also making an impact.

Foreign Language Film

Will win: I found “The Square” a pretentious and muddled feature, but others were more impressed with this Swedish feature.

The story of a contemporary art museum curator is maddening and meandering, at times obscuring what it is trying to say.

It has some funny and impressive moments — especially a dinner fund-raiser that seems to go horribly wrong. Overall, though, it lacks the impact it should have had.

Should win: The Chilean entry “A Fantastic Woman,” is a poignant story about a transgender woman who faces hostility and discrimination from the family of her late partner as well as the government, all the while trying to cope with her grief.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Will/Should win: “Call Me by Your Name” was adapted by James Ivory whose work as a writer and/or director of such films as “A Room with a View,” “Maurice,” “The Remains of the Day” and “Howards End,” created many memorable on-screen moments.

Ivory’s script for “Call Me by Your Name” is a warm and objective study of a young man coming of age, exploring his sexuality and future.

It is a leisurely memory piece that envelops you.

Ivory deserves the Academy Award, not just for this script, but for the totality of contributions to cinema.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Will win: For me, this is the most competitive category of the Academy Awards. Four of the five nominated screenplays are sharp, innovative and — well — original.

I believe Jordan Peele’s “Get Out” will be chosen. Peele’s script was honored by the Writers Guild of America, which is an early Oscar prognosticator, and deservedly so.

The film is a sly feature that combines horror, satire and sociology as it jabs at race relations and perceptions about black people in the United States.

“Get Out” has so much going for it, that you have to view it twice to catch everything Peele throws at you.

Should win: As impressed as I was with the script for “Get Out,” my heart belongs to Greta Gerwig’s screenplay for “Lady Bird.”

The characters she created were so real, so accessible that you believed they could be living next door to you.

To be honest, I would be happy if either Peele or Gerwig were honored.

Other choices:

Cinematography: “Blade Runner 2049.” Roger A. Deakins never has won an Oscar despite numerous nominations. His work on Ridley Scott’s sequel should end that drought.

His work helped recreate and enhance a world many filmgoers already were familiar with. Deakins’ contribution should be recognized.

Music (original score): “The Shape of Water,” Alexandre Desplat

Music (original song): “Remember Me” from “Coco”

Documentary (short subject): “Edith+Eddie.”

Short film (animated): “Dear Basketball.”

Short film (live action): “DeKalb Elementary.”

Film Editing: “Dunkirk.”

Sound editing: “Dunkirk.”

Sound mixing: “Dunkirk.”

Production design: “Blade Runner 2049.”

Visual effects: “War for the Planet of the Apes.”

Costume design: “Phantom Thread,” Mark Bridges.

Makeup and hair styling: “Victoria & Abdul.”

I am a member of the Indiana Film Journalists Association. My reviews appear at ReelBob (reelbob.com) and Rottentomatoes (www.rottentomatoes.com). I also review Blu-rays and DVDs. I can be reached by email at bobbloomjc@gmail.com or on Twitter @ReelBobBloom. Links to my reviews can be found on Facebook, Twitter, Google+ and LinkedIn.