Which Docs Will Get the Nod?

While everybody is freaking out about “American Hustle” and “12 Years a Slave,” I want to talk about the truly fascinating Oscar nominations coming up. Every year, I await the reveal of the shortlist for feature-length documentaries because it’s always such a surprise.

Unlike the films nominated for Best Picture, these are always films that never seem to be the year’s most popular documentaries of the year but the quality ones that arise from the festival circuit.

This year, I’ve done a lot better in viewing the shortlisted documentaries — 14 out of 15 — and I want to go through them all, talk about their worth, predict which will be the final five and look at what wasn’t on the list. So let’s start with the first one …

20 Feet From Stardom

Many of the 15 movies focus on disease, war and corruption, but this is the only one that is actually feel-good — a happy look at background singers for some of the biggest musicians. Their stories are inspiring, the music is fantastic, and it’s a very likable underdog story. It’s not much more than that, but this has gotten a nice amount of traction probably because it serves as counterprogramming. The film had a big publicity push when the main subjects performed the National Anthem at the Rose Bowl a few weeks ago. The list’s big wild card because it’s not as good as the others but it also has the influential power of the Weinsteins behind it. Currently available on DVD/Blu-ray and iTunes.

The Act of Killing

I first heard of this when I saw Werner Herzog, speaking at Indiana University, call it the best documentary he’s seen in decades. Then, on “The Daily Show,” director Joshua Oppenheimer discussed the project, which looks at the men who killed Chinese communists for Indonesia. None of that prepared me for the movie itself — a surreal masterpiece that looks at the unchecked darkness of human nature. It’s still a feeling I can’t describe because the actions of its subjects are something I still can’t comprehend. It’s a dark and challenging film among my top 5 films for all of 2013. Currently available on DVD/Blu-ray, iTunes, OnDemand and Netflix Instant.

The Armstrong Lie

Alex Gibney is an Oscar favorite, with his winning film, “Taxi to the Dark Side,” and plenty of other great documentaries that always make the shortlists. This is my first disappointment from him. Everything Lance Armstrong did makes for a great documentary subject, but even with new interviews exclusive to him, Gibney is never able to crack him. Because the film can’t organically tell the full story, it’s a lot of filler and personal judgment toward the man. By the end, you know there will be one day be a more definitive documentary on this man. Available Feb. 4 on iTunes.

Blackfish

I know I said this category doesn’t play into popularity as others do. But reactions to films like “Blackfish” are the exception that proves the rule. It’s the advocacy documentary that really took hold this year — with a successful theatrical run, plenty of press, an airing on CNN and availability on Netflix Instant so more people can tell their mom that they have to stop going to Sea World. “Blackfish” is a really good movie presenting a damning indictment of Sea World’s treatment of its orca whales. Although the arguments are so strong and the footage so depressing, this feels incomplete because Sea World utterly refused to take part. I can’t imagine its defense could be, but I wish we’d heard it. Currently available on Blu-ray, iTunes and Netflix Instant.

The Crash Reel

When looking at the list of 15, it’s easy to declare HBO a big winner. It aired five of the films on the list sometime in 13 after they played in festivals like Sundance. Although not one of my favorites, this has plenty of outstanding moments in its look at Kevin Pearce, one of the best snowboarders on the planet, and his tragic, career-ending injury. While I found the look at his “bro” entourage and fan base a bit annoying, the examination of this sport’s danger is powerful — with a montage near the end that’s one of the most horrifying moments I saw last year. Currently available on iTunes. Available Feb. 4 on Blu-ray and DVD.

Cutie and the Boxer

I love this movie because it’s so hard to describe — adorable and yet aggravating at times. The “boxer” is experimental artist Ushio Shinohara, who has been married to the “cutie,” Noriko, for 40 years. He is often awful to her, treating her more as an assistant than a fellow artist. However, there’s an undeniably functional relationship in their love and art. While he puts paint on his boxing gloves and goes to town on a giant canvas, Noriko is able to articulate her emotions more into her drawings. They have an undeniable affection for each other, but it’s through their frustrations that they create something special. A complicated, extremely well-made examination. Currently available on iTunes and Netflix Instant.

Dirty Wars

A documentary I respected more than I really admired, this looks at the United State’s international relations in regard to “covert wars.” Jeremy Scahill is a great subject, but this is just too big of a topic to cover in under two hours. The film jumps around to different conflicts and scandals so often that the story feels like a dark series of trivia more than a narrative. That said, it is still worth seeing for a bolder editing style rarely seen in these types of documentaries. Currently available on Netflix Instant.

First Cousin Once Removed

To see a family member’s sad deterioration is a very popular documentary subject because you want to capture someone you care deeply about while you still can. It’s also an unsettlingly confusing moment when that person is not the person you know anymore. This feels like a fresh take on this subgenre because the focus is more on who Edwin Honig is now than who he used to be. I was amazed by the use of repetition because Alan Berliner is devoted to having the same conversation many times to see Edwin’s familiar and different answers. However, it’s filmed in an exciting, often beautiful way. This is undeniable proof you don’t always need a big budget to make your documentary extremely vibrant. Currently available on HBOGo.

God Loves Uganda

This is such a weird documentary because nobody thinks, “Hey, let’s go after missionaries!” But as you see the politics and mixed messages that go into some of these powerful Christian missionaries, you really start to feel bad for the African people. While the film is undeniably angry, I don’t think this is an attack on all of Christianity. This looks at the contradictions of people doing un-Christian things in the name of spreading Christianity. A bit muddled at times, but absolutely a story I hadn’t seen before in a movie. Currently playing in select theaters nationwide. Will air May 19 on PBS.

Life According to Sam

Another one that aired on HBO, but Hoosiers should know it best as one of the 2013 Heartland Film Festival award winners. It tied for the Audience Choice award, and it’s easy to see why. Much like their Oscar- (and Heartland) winning short film “Inocente,” Sean and Andrea Nix Fine find a charismatic, inspiring kid and gives him a platform to show what life is like. Sam Bern had Progeria, a disease that ages you rapidly. The film shows how he lives with his physical restrictions while still achieving his dreams as his parents fight to find a cure. The film clearly has great love for Sam but doesn’t treat his story as a puff piece. One of its most fascinating moments is the ethical conflict of trying a new medicine but remaining unwilling to use placebos so more kids can hopefully benefit. The film is filled with hope and admiration for all involved with this troubling disease, which only makes it sadder to say that Sam passed away January 9, 2014, at 17. He will be greatly missed. Currently available on HBOGo.

Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer

Much like Lance Armstrong, the trio of women who make up the band Pussy Riot are not going to break down and cry. That’s actually what makes them so watchable — that, as they go to jail, they’re unflinching in their beliefs and political stances. Whenever given an opportunity to speak, they are articulate and calm, but when they’re on stage, they’re jumping off the walls. It feels like the filmmakers always needed more access — more a compilation of news and trial footage than its own examination. It also had the weird timing of coming out before the band was recently released early from prison. Currently available on HBOGo.

The Square

As good a year it was for HBO, Netflix is planning to be just as powerful. Many of these documentaries show up on the instant-streaming service, but this year, Netflix bought distribution rights to the crowd-pleasing short game and this powerful Oscar favorite that puts you in the heart of the Egyptian revolution. It’s a very complicated situation with a lot of history and emotions. All of the footage is outstanding, and you feel the frustration of living alone in a nation when the world media ignores the actions you see. This was a big hit at Sundance and then had a successful IndieGoGo campaign to afford the filmmakers to return to capture Egypt’s latest revolution. Available Jan. 17 on Netflix Instant.

Stories We Tell

I will always watch a Sarah Polley movie because she seems to reach for something really special — the intangible spark that holds people together in a beautiful way. In this movie, that’s what really stood out because as a documentarian, Polley seems able to magically capture moments that show her love and understanding for her family. As the story progressed and I learned more about this incredible mystery, I fell completely in love with the world she created. But then it started to fall apart. I found the last 20 minutes or so to be way too indulgent and false as she tried to praise the idea that everybody’s story is equal while creating fake videos for her version to create emotional manipulation and undermine other people’s stories. By the end, I felt betrayed in a way that ruined good feelings I had about the beginning. However, I know I’m in the minority about the film’s techniques as I see all the accolades it has been receiving. Currently available on DVD/Blu-ray and iTunes.

Tim’s Vermeer

So close! This was the only film I didn’t have access to this year and it’s one of the ones I wanted to see the most. Famous magician Teller directs his first film about a man who has invented a way to perfectly replicate a Vermeer painting. I love stories about the mechanics of art and questioning what is art. Everything I’ve heard sounds amazing but, alas, I haven’t seen it, so it’s hard to tell if it’s going to make it into the final five. Currently in theaters.

Which Way is the Front Line From Here?: The Life and Time of Tim Hetherington

I would consider “Restrepo” to be one of the best war movies ever made. It was heartbreaking to know one of its two filmmakers died in the line of fire. This documentary is a very well-made tribute to that man that shows his heroism and integrity while also creating a platform to show what so many in this profession go through in order to get the news out for the world to see. I don’t know if I liked this movie because of my love for “Restrepo” and seeing the kind of places Hetherington put himself in or if this movie really does stand on its own. Right now, I’ll recommend this as a very effective companion piece. Currently available on HBOGo.

So, What’s Missing?

The biggest disappointment to me was the omission of “Blood Brother,” a Heartland- and Sundance-winning film about an amazing young man choosing to live at an AIDS orphanage in India. (It will air Jan. 20 on PBS.) Ultimately, I fear it didn’t make the list because not enough of the right people have seen it yet.

Of all the HBO documentaries chosen, the ones I liked most (“Gideon’s Army” and “Valentine Road”) were left out. “Leviathan” may have been too experimental for the Academy, but it’s something special.

Others I liked this year include: “Camp 14: Total Control Zone,” “Hey Bartender,” “How to Make Money Selling Drugs,” “Happy People: A Year in the Taiga,” “Bible Quiz” and “Room 237.”

Some critically acclaimed others that could have made it include “After Tiller,” “Best Kept Secret,” “Let the Fire Burn,” “An Oversimplification of Her Beauty,” “The Short Game,” “Smash & Grab: The Story of the Pink Panthers,” “The Unknown Known” and “At Berkeley,” but the Academy never seems to pay attention to Frederick Wiseman.

So, Who Will Make the Final Five?

I feel confident saying “The Square,” “Stories We Tell” and “Blackfish” will make it. “The Act of Killing” has made just about every critic group’s awards, but that doesn’t always influence the Academy. I’ll say it makes the list, but I have some cynical doubts. Then, it’s really a toss-up. With the DGA nomination and the Cinema Eye Award, I’ll say it goes to “Cutie and the Boxer.” So do the right thing, bet your entire paycheck on these predictions and cut me in on your winnings when you find out the results this Thursday.