Why is Black Widow tanking?
The biz side of Hollywood is in a tizzy about why the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe feature isn't measuring up to its predecessors -- but should they be?
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First of all, “Black Widow” is not tanking, despite this article from Microsoft News noting the 67% drop in theatrical tickets sales during its second weekend in release. I found similar ominous banging the drums of doom from Variety, Deadline, The Atlantic and the other supposed entertainment business experts.
The big fall is purportedly an indication the latest Marvel Cinematic Universe feature, hotly anticipated and then delayed more than a year in its release due to COVID, will not have “legs” as they say in the business — aka, continue to rack up big dollars for a long time.
Here are the hard numbers: “Black Widow” made $80 million in theaters its first weekend — the best 2021 opening — and just under $26 million this past one. That is a big drop, but not unprecedented for high-profile features. “F9” saw a similar decrease its second weekend, and I don’t recall everyone going plotz.
But don’t forget, Disney also released the movie simultaneously on its Disney+ platform with a $30 premium fee — as it is doing with most of its big-dollar feature films these days. The idea is that families will save the drive and overpriced concession prices to enjoy a streaming rental at home.
This is the House of Mouse’s business model going forward, and imho it’s a pretty canny one. They sent out an email last week claiming “Black Widow” made more than $200 million its first weekend when you count the Disney+ rentals. I have no reason to doubt them.
Don’t forget: they don’t have to share any of that “plus” money with theaters or distributors.
And, the film has made an additional $232 million on international theatrical release so far. Not to mention, it was competing with another high-profile release, “Space Jam: A New Legacy.” So, a conservative estimate says Disney will still clear in the mid- to high nine figures for “Black Widow.”
That is below the billion-plus take that has become fairly standard for the MCU. But let’s put it this way: I don’t think any Disney accountants are scrambling to perform any of the bean counter tricks for which Hollywood is so famous for hiding huge profits or losses.
Still, “Black Widow” is not going to hit “Black Panther” numbers. Why? I’ll take a stab:
Large swaths of the usual theater-goers are still hesitant to go to the movies in-person. I don’t blame them. Stagnant vaccine numbers, eased rules on masking/distancing and new COVID variants would suggest caution.
As I’ve said before, I think the move to streaming platforms is substantial, and permanent. Only about 10% of people are hardcore theater-goers. The bulk of casual movie fans have found they’re fine with watching new movies at home.
I don’t find much value in political film criticism, but I can’t help believing there’s sexism going on with a female MCU heroine finally getting a solo film — something that, frankly, is long overdue. Young men and teen boys are the biggest ticket-buying bloc. They tend to like dudes with big muscles and slinky females who play to their voyeuristic impulses. “Black Widow” is exactly the opposite of that.
The action scenes in “Black Widow” are more staid and down-to-earth than other MCU flicks. Part of this is tapping an indie film director with no experience with big CGI-heavy action, and the staging is a little muddled. Mostly, though, it’s owing to the fact that there are no gods or super-suits or sorcerers or raging green monsters here. Just normal humans with fantastically honed combat skills. At least Captain America had a shield. Natasha Romanoff doesn’t even seem to have her nifty gadgets this time around. The only super-powered character, Red Guardian, doesn’t get a big moment to show off his strength.
The one line in those stories I linked at the top I agree with is that there’s a certain degree of superhero fatigue at this point. We just finished a 12-year magnificent story arc building up to “Avengers: Endgame” that killed off a lot of people and tied up a lot of bows. I think many fans feel like they’re “done” with this first generation of the MCU and want a little pause before launching into a new wave with fresh faces, like “Eternals” coming in November.
The Disney+ MCU spinoffs have been great. But don’t forget, they originally were intended to air after “Black Widow.” I think “Loki,” “WandaVision” and “The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” (my favorite of the three) have stolen some of the feature film’s mojo. We have been getting regular superhero content on a weekly basis for much of the last nine months, rather than having a big gap before the next “event” film.
So no, “Black Widow” is not going to be a billion-dollar film — at least not as far as box office goes. But with an estimated $200M budget, and Disney keeping all those "plus” rentals to itself, it is far from being a bomb. From my little corner, the future of Marvel movies does not seem in much doubt.